Your plan may rest on costs and supply that climate is already changing.
Richard Clissold-Vasey | Strategic Adviser on Climate-Integrated Business Performance
Climate, energy and resource pressures are changing costs, supply reliability, asset performance and demand putting margins, growth and returns under pressure. Competitors who respond earlier may secure scarce supply, win customers or capture opportunities while your capital and attention remain committed elsewhere.
I help strategy directors and leadership teams identify the impacts that matter and trace their consequences for business commitments and opportunities. I recommend where change or further assessment is needed, and advise on improvements to planning, investment and governance so future decisions account for these changes earlier.
I am currently piloting the Business Plan Pressure Diagnostic with a small number of organisations. Each pilot is built around one live plan or decision, working together to understand what climate integration means in practice and where it can make a difference to the business.
WORKED EXAMPLE
How drought reaches the business plan
An illustrative £300m UK pasta and sauces business buys its durum wheat, the wheat used for pasta, from two approved suppliers. Both source from the same Canadian growing region. The annual plan assumes wheat costs rise by 3%.
The Business Impact Chain traces that pressure from field to plan in six steps.
1 External pressure. Heat and drought hit the Canadian prairies resulting in a reduced harvest. This can happen in any year of the plan.
2 Impact path. Wheat becomes scarce and its price rises. Customer contracts fix the business’s own prices for six months.
3 Plan weakness. The plan counts two suppliers as a spread of risk, but both depend on one region. Its 3% cost assumption leaves no room for a failed harvest.
4 Performance implications. In this scenario, regional supply falls 15% and wheat prices rise 40%. Margin is squeezed for six months until prices can rise, and volumes may fall once they do.
5 Capability gap. Supplier-origin evidence is not connected to the cost assumptions used in planning. The shared dependency is missed when the commitment is assessed.
6 Response and integration. Establish where critical inputs are grown and assess alternative sourcing and contract options. Recommend how agreed supply-and-price scenarios, ownership and review triggers should enter planning.
Illustrative scenario, not client work or a forecast.
Six questions to ask before the next sign-off
The urgency comes when someone has to put their name to a number, a contract or a choice. If any of these questions is hard to answer with confidence, the plan may rest on conditions that no longer hold.
PLAN OR BUDGET SUBMISSION
Do the growth, margin, cost and return commitments being signed off still reflect the conditions the business expects to operate in?
CAPITAL COMMITTEE OR STAGE GATE
Does the investment case hold across the life of the asset, once energy, water and climate costs are priced in?
SOURCING DECISION OR SUPPLIER REVIEW
Are cost, energy, water, yield, availability and reliability visible before the contract is locked in?
CUSTOMER CONTRACT, LAUNCH OR SERVICE PROMISE
Can the supply base, assets and operating model support the price, volume and service level being promised?
STRATEGY OR FIVE-YEAR PLAN REFRESH
Does the plan the Board will be asked to support reflect the operating environment the business is entering?
INSURANCE, REFINANCING OR ESTATE DECISION
When insurers or lenders reprice, does that feed back into asset economics, capital choices and the wider plan?
For a broader self-check, the Business Plan Pressure Test offers five questions about how changing conditions reach business commitments and opportunities. It takes about ten minutes and can highlight where a closer look may be useful. Take the Pressure Test.
BSI’s 2026 survey of 7,068 G7 business leaders found that 77% believed climate change could disrupt their supply chains, yet only one in five had undertaken climate-risk adaptation planning.
G7 Net Zero Temperature Check, BSI 2026
Senior judgement, grounded in delivery
I have spent more than three decades in strategy execution, enterprise transformation and governance, in global and private equity-backed businesses. That work has shown me how businesses operate as a whole, from their economics and operations to their supply chains, investment and governance. It means I can connect evidence that usually sits in separate functions and help leaders answer the two questions that matter most. Is there a real problem here? And will the proposed fix still work once budgets, accountabilities and commercial pressure take over?
You work directly with me to connect the evidence, understand the business consequence and agree a response leaders can carry through.
"Richard is highly skilled at working with senior stakeholders across the organisation to define strategy and deliver complex, multi-stream programmes to generate better commercial outcomes."
Eve Dixon, Global Transformation Director, Kantar
The thinking behind the work
Climate, energy and resource pressures are changing business costs, supply reliability, asset performance and demand. Their financial consequences take shape through today’s budgets, investments, contracts and operating plans. Different teams often hold pieces of the evidence, but few see the whole chain. That leaves commitments exposed, decisions based on incomplete economics, and opportunities overlooked.
The Climate-Integrated Enterprise describes the capabilities businesses need to close those gaps. Integrated Value Planning provides a process for bringing the evidence together and building it into planning, capital allocation and governance, so it can influence decisions before commitments are made.
The Climate-Integrated Enterprise describes a business that builds climate, energy and resource pressures into the decisions that drive its performance. Its capabilities model helps identify what is missing.
Integrated Value Planning is the planning discipline that brings climate, energy and resource pressures into shared assumptions, capital allocation and governance. It supports the practical changes identified by the diagnostic.
Piloting the diagnostic
Trace the exposure → determine what matters → design the response → mobilise delivery.
I am looking to work with two or three organisations on a pilot. We agree one live plan, investment or sourcing decision, trace how changing conditions reach it, and agree what, if anything, should change.
You receive the findings and the priority changes. In return I ask for candid feedback on what was useful and permission to share anonymised learning.
Your team keeps ownership of the decisions and their delivery.
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Approximately four weeks, up to six for broader scope.
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Designed for strategy directors and senior leaders
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About four to six hours of sponsor time, with four to six contributors.
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An impact heatmap, leadership findings, priority changes and an outline 90-day plan.
I am particularly interested in consumer goods, FMCG, food and drink manufacturing, retail, contract catering and food distribution, and in other consumer-facing businesses where food, energy or weather shape the economics.
Compare notes
If a changing cost, supply or customer condition is testing a commitment in your business, or opening an opportunity a competitor could act on first, I would be glad to hear about it.
Equally, if you simply want to talk through the ideas here, get in touch. Some of the most useful conversations start that way.
